Recent data from the European Heat Pump Association has shown mixed results for heat pump sales across Europe. But how is the UK market faring?

The UK heat pump sector has experienced uncertainty over the past year, with a new Government taking power in July. In this article, we’ll examine the current state of the UK market and explore factors influencing its future.

The Heat Pump Association (HPA) shares factory gate sales data annually, showcasing heat pump sales in the UK since 2019. There’s clear evidence of sustained and steady growth, with sales rising 145% since HPA tracking began. Recent insights published last month reveal that air-to-water monobloc heat pumps make up 79% of UK heat pump sales in 2023.

The 2024 marker shows promise, with a 40% increase in heat pump sales in the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. MCS installation data, supports this trend, noting over 30,000 MCS certified heat pumps were installed in the first size months of 2024, a 45% increase from 2023, bringing the total MCS certified heat pump installations to 250,000 to date.

Another key indicator of market performance is the number of trained heat pump installers, who play a crucial role in decarbonising the UK’s heating. HPA’s industry-leading data on individuals successfully completing recognised heat pump courses shows demand for training has been on the rise. With the number of successful candidates increasing by 166% from 2022 to 2023, and a 37% growth in Q2 2024 relative to Q2 2023, the market is clearly moving in a positive direction.

So, what is driving this growth in the market? Analysis of UK Government Schemes to support heat pump deployment indicates that the majority of Government-supported heat pump installations in 12 months (June 2023 – June 2024) were funded through the Energy Company Obligation and the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (50% and 45%, respectively). The BUS grant uplift in October 2023 also led to a 173% spike in installations.

Pleasingly, as of the 2nd of October, DESNZ has permitted Ofgem (the schemes delivery body) to over-allocate vouchers by up to £50 million this financial year, bringing the total to £200 million. This is fantastic news for the sector and will help to ensure the uninterrupted continuation of the scheme, preventing a hiatus in the market, that would have affected consumers, manufacturers and installers alike. This demonstrates just how important effective incentives and clear policies are for the continued growth of the UK heat pump market.

Although the market is growing, more must be done to further accelerate the deployment of heat pumps. The UK has a legal obligation to meet Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050 and to achieve this, the decarbonisation of heat will be required. With a new Labour Government, the market faces both fresh opportunities and challenges. We know that ‘Making Britain a Clean Energy Superpower’ and ‘Kickstarting Economic Growth’ are key missions for the Labour Government, and heat pump deployment has a role to play in both. and heat pump deployment has a role to play in both.

Whilst we’ve yet to see extensive policy announcements, the HPA remains optimistic of the Government’s support for the heat decarbonisation agenda, especially given the recent statement on the Warm Homes Plan and pending consultation responses such as the Clean Heat Market Mechanism, the Future Homes Standard and changes to Permitted Development Rights. Once responded to, these policies should have a real impact on demand and installations.

To continue the momentum, the Government must take clear, decisive steps. Addressing the disparity between electricity and gas prices, implementing the Future Homes Standard, and establishing a clear heat pump deployment roadmap will build the necessary confidence within the supply chain, increase consumer confidence and demand and lead to the accelerated growth of the heat pump market in the UK.